Searching for answers
10/03/14 06:02
One possibility is that we will never fully understand what happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. What we know at this point is not much. The Boeing 777 was carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. About two hours into the flight it vanished from radar while flying over the South China Sea. Although there has been some speculation about the possibility of some kind of attack after it was discovered that at least two passengers were traveling with stolen passports, there is no evidence that gives any real clue about what has happened.
It is possible that some wreckage will still be found. They’ve been searching for three days now. In 2009, when Air France Flight 447, an Airbus A330 plunged into the Atlantic killing 228, it took five days before searchers found any wreckage. Eventually, after years of careful analysis of the wreckage that could be recovered, investigators believe that icing was the cause of that accident. Ice crystals blocking the pitot static system could cause all of the airspeed indicators on the plane to cease functioning and leaving the pilots without sufficient information to prevent a stall. It wouldn’t be fair to say that investigators found enough evidence to have a positive explanation of what happened.
There have been other accidents that remain unsolved. In 1962, Flying Tiger Line Flight 738 was carrying 90 US military personnel from Guam to the Philippines. No wreckage or other evidence has ever been found. There was a report from a Liberian tanker of an explosion in the sky, but it has never been confirmed that what the people on the tanker saw was the airplane. It is assumed that it went down somewhere in the Western Pacific, but that is a huge area and the cause of the accident will probably forever remain unknown.
A similar story surrounds the fates of two different British South American Airways planes that disappeared in the Bermuda triangle in 1948 and 1949. There was no wreckage found and there is no hard evidence about what happened.
In 1947 another British South American plane was lost, but not over the ocean. The airplane sent a Morse code transmission four minutes before its scheduled landing time: “ETA SANTIAGO 17.45 HRS STENDEC.” The beginning of the message eis clear. No one knows what “stendec” means. The controller responded that he did not know what stendec meant, but there was no response. The plane seemed to simply vanish. More than 50 years later, in 1998, Argentinian rock climbers on Mount Tupungato found what appeared to be wreckage and engine parts. It took a couple of years to organize an expedition to search, but in 2000 enough additional wreckage was found to identify the plane as the one lost in 1947. It appears that the plane crashed into the mountain and set off an avalanche that completely buried the wreckage.
It must be excruciating for families. As long as there is no wreckage, there is hope, however slim, that someone could have survived. There might be an inflatable exit ramp with survivors on board. There might be some possibility of life. And even if everyone on board has died, there could be some evidence that could prevent such a tragedy in the future. Based on the evidence about the ice crystals in the pitot static system of the Airbus plane that crashed in 2009, the system was redesigned in all Airbus A330s and other airplanes with similar systems to provide back up systems to prevent a total loss of airspeed information for pilots.
At minimum, investigators hope to learn something from the tragedy that might contribute to preventing future tragedy.
Airline accidents are rare in the first place. Accidents with no survivors are even more rare. Accidents where no wreckage is found are among the most rare of all.
Airline travel is one of the safest ways to get from one place to another. Around 100,000 flights land safely every day. Each year more than 3 billion people fly safely on more than 37 million flights. And even when there is an accident, the most likely outcome for a passenger is survival. Contrary to the public perception, more than 95% of people involved in airline accidents live to tell of their experiences.
MIT Professor Arnold Barnet is a statistical expert. He analyzed the statistics of flying and calculated the odds of dying in an airplane accident as 1 in 14 million. That means you could take an airline trip every day for 38,000 years before being involved in a fatal accident.
The incredible safety record of airline transport, however is no consolation to the family members who are longing and hoping to learn something about what happened to their loved ones aboard Malaysia Flight 370. Statistics and odds mean nothing to them. It is probably more meaningful for them to know that more than 40 planes and two dozen ships are out scouring the South China Sea for any sign of what might have happened.
The search has been frustrating for the searchers. A Singaporean search plane spotted a “strange object” but it was determined that the object is not debris from a plane. Reports of an oil slick on the water have proven to be not related to the missing plane. Each report that there may be some evidence has resulted in no substantive information so far.
I assume that if you are waiting, you are both hoping for and dreading the next bit of news. The questions far outweigh the fragments of information that has been released so far. If you are a family member you begin to realize that you may have to live not only with your grief, but also with a mountain of uncertainty about how your loved one died. When there is no body that can be recovered for a funeral, the process of grief is unique and distinct from other forms of loss. And sudden and traumatic loss is always a big challenge for those left behind.
So we pray for the families. We pray for the safety of those involved in the search. And if we cannot have understanding then we pray for the courage to accept what we cannot understand.
It is possible that some wreckage will still be found. They’ve been searching for three days now. In 2009, when Air France Flight 447, an Airbus A330 plunged into the Atlantic killing 228, it took five days before searchers found any wreckage. Eventually, after years of careful analysis of the wreckage that could be recovered, investigators believe that icing was the cause of that accident. Ice crystals blocking the pitot static system could cause all of the airspeed indicators on the plane to cease functioning and leaving the pilots without sufficient information to prevent a stall. It wouldn’t be fair to say that investigators found enough evidence to have a positive explanation of what happened.
There have been other accidents that remain unsolved. In 1962, Flying Tiger Line Flight 738 was carrying 90 US military personnel from Guam to the Philippines. No wreckage or other evidence has ever been found. There was a report from a Liberian tanker of an explosion in the sky, but it has never been confirmed that what the people on the tanker saw was the airplane. It is assumed that it went down somewhere in the Western Pacific, but that is a huge area and the cause of the accident will probably forever remain unknown.
A similar story surrounds the fates of two different British South American Airways planes that disappeared in the Bermuda triangle in 1948 and 1949. There was no wreckage found and there is no hard evidence about what happened.
In 1947 another British South American plane was lost, but not over the ocean. The airplane sent a Morse code transmission four minutes before its scheduled landing time: “ETA SANTIAGO 17.45 HRS STENDEC.” The beginning of the message eis clear. No one knows what “stendec” means. The controller responded that he did not know what stendec meant, but there was no response. The plane seemed to simply vanish. More than 50 years later, in 1998, Argentinian rock climbers on Mount Tupungato found what appeared to be wreckage and engine parts. It took a couple of years to organize an expedition to search, but in 2000 enough additional wreckage was found to identify the plane as the one lost in 1947. It appears that the plane crashed into the mountain and set off an avalanche that completely buried the wreckage.
It must be excruciating for families. As long as there is no wreckage, there is hope, however slim, that someone could have survived. There might be an inflatable exit ramp with survivors on board. There might be some possibility of life. And even if everyone on board has died, there could be some evidence that could prevent such a tragedy in the future. Based on the evidence about the ice crystals in the pitot static system of the Airbus plane that crashed in 2009, the system was redesigned in all Airbus A330s and other airplanes with similar systems to provide back up systems to prevent a total loss of airspeed information for pilots.
At minimum, investigators hope to learn something from the tragedy that might contribute to preventing future tragedy.
Airline accidents are rare in the first place. Accidents with no survivors are even more rare. Accidents where no wreckage is found are among the most rare of all.
Airline travel is one of the safest ways to get from one place to another. Around 100,000 flights land safely every day. Each year more than 3 billion people fly safely on more than 37 million flights. And even when there is an accident, the most likely outcome for a passenger is survival. Contrary to the public perception, more than 95% of people involved in airline accidents live to tell of their experiences.
MIT Professor Arnold Barnet is a statistical expert. He analyzed the statistics of flying and calculated the odds of dying in an airplane accident as 1 in 14 million. That means you could take an airline trip every day for 38,000 years before being involved in a fatal accident.
The incredible safety record of airline transport, however is no consolation to the family members who are longing and hoping to learn something about what happened to their loved ones aboard Malaysia Flight 370. Statistics and odds mean nothing to them. It is probably more meaningful for them to know that more than 40 planes and two dozen ships are out scouring the South China Sea for any sign of what might have happened.
The search has been frustrating for the searchers. A Singaporean search plane spotted a “strange object” but it was determined that the object is not debris from a plane. Reports of an oil slick on the water have proven to be not related to the missing plane. Each report that there may be some evidence has resulted in no substantive information so far.
I assume that if you are waiting, you are both hoping for and dreading the next bit of news. The questions far outweigh the fragments of information that has been released so far. If you are a family member you begin to realize that you may have to live not only with your grief, but also with a mountain of uncertainty about how your loved one died. When there is no body that can be recovered for a funeral, the process of grief is unique and distinct from other forms of loss. And sudden and traumatic loss is always a big challenge for those left behind.
So we pray for the families. We pray for the safety of those involved in the search. And if we cannot have understanding then we pray for the courage to accept what we cannot understand.