We do live in an interesting place. It is a bit hard to tell, but there are at least four inches of new snow on the ground and the snow is still coming down. The radar indicates that we should expect light to moderate snowfall for a few more hours at least. The yard was almost bare yesterday and the good news is that the grass was green. After months of brown, it is really nice to have the green showing up and to anticipate spring growth.

A few spring snow showers don’t break the drought cycle and it is way too early to make predictions about the year’s precipitation totals, but it is nice to have the moisture. There is even a bit of mud in places.

All of this recent moisture is combining to get the forecasters concerned about possible flooding. We don’t have anything to worry about here, but downstream may be a different situation. In the prairies east of the hills, the water is starting to flow by at a quick pace. Turtle Creek is at full flood stage and east river the James and Elm rivers are reporting flooding as well.

According to Accuweather, people in the upper Midwest should be bracing for record flooding. Near St. Paul, the Mississippi river is expected to crest in about a week at least 13 feet higher than it is today. There are already some roads blocked by floods in Minnesota and a backhoe operator was killed while trying to clear debris from a culvert in that state.

But floods are difficult to predict. Our forecast here calls for temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below average for the whole week. Cooler temperatures mean slower melting. Slower melting means more water sinks into the ground to refresh the underground aquifer and less runs off to cause flooding down stream. A month a go, it seemed like the ground was so dry that it could absorb all the snowmelt we could produce.

And it gives us something to talk about. We often joke that we only lived in North Dakota for seven years and in that time they never had a typical year. Each year, whether it was cold or warm, snowy or dry the local people would steadfastly declare to us: “It isn’t usually like this around here.” We never found out what “usual” was like. The truth, however, is that I like to be surprised by the weather. The spring blizzards of the past few weeks have been beautiful. We get those large, lovely snowflakes and the white snow contrasts with the sunny skies. The storms come and go leaving the skies clear and beautiful. The snow melts and settles almost as fast as it falls, so it really doesn’t cause much disruption. We may take a day to dig out, but soon we’re back to business as usual. And it was so good for our spirits to see the green grass after a dry winter.

Weather forecasts are more accurate these days than they were years ago. The development of a network of accurate weather radar stations has made a big difference in our ability to see what is going on with the storm systems. Anyone with a computer and access to the Internet can now access full color radar at the click of a mouse. When I compare what I can get from the comfort of my home with what used to be available at a flight service station, I can see how far we have come. The blizzards don’t really catch us by surprise like they used to. Forecasters still struggle with the exact timing of storms. Sometimes they move slower than predicted, but for the most part they are pretty accurate in predicting storm tracks and where the weather will go.

So if the forecasters are accurate this week, we could see a little more snow today and a little rain in the early part of the week, with rising temperatures throughout the week. By the end of the week, we could see temperatures as high as 70 degrees. Next weekend should be beautiful. Who knows, we may even be mowing the lawn or putting in part of the garden in a week or so.

We are concerned for those who live down stream. Flooding is never a welcome companion. And we saw dramatic effects of down stream flooding a few years ago when relatively high snow falls here combined with record snow pack in the Rockies that melted very quickly with warm temperatures. The flooding overwhelmed the Missouri River reservoir system and forced releases that caused a lot of flooding along the entire basin. It seems unlikely that such a scenario will be repeated this year. The reservoirs are not yet full and there is a lot of water storage capacity in the system.

We live lives that are more detached from the weather than was the case of previous generations. For the most part we go on with our lives regardless of the weather. Even severe drought doesn’t mean famine for us. The grocery stores remain well stocked and our incomes, though not totally separated from the agricultural economy, are far enough removed that the paychecks keep coming in. The weather can affect attendance at church and I come from a long enough line of folks who farmed and ranched that checking out the weather is a deeply ingrained part of my daily routine. The bottom line, however, is that life goes on whether it snows or rains or fails to give us any precipitation. We’re more removed from the cycles of weather and nature than was the case for any previous generation of folk in this part of the world.

So it is good to be surprised by the weather. I enjoy it. I don’t want every detail to be completely predictable. If you are going to live in a very interesting place, you might as well stay interested in what is going on.

Keep looking up!

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