Interpreting the trends
26/03/13 03:28
There are many different ways to interpret the data from polls, but it is nearly impossible to ignore the fact that America is undergoing a religious shift. You can read the data in terms of a cultural and ethnic shift. While the percentage of Americans who are affiliated with the Roman Catholic Church is relatively stable at about 22%, the church is increasingly Hispanic. About half of all Catholics younger than 40 are Latino. You can read the data in terms of decline. In 2012, American ceased to be majority Protestant. The decline, which started in mainline Protestant churches now has clearly spread to Evangelical churches as well. The declines have been most significant among whites and most rapid among men. But it is also possible to read the data as the story of growth. The group that is growing has been given the nickname “nones” (as in “none of the above”). In the 1950’s this was about 2% of the population. By the 1970’s it had grown to about 7%. Today it is close to 20% and growing.
One needs to be careful with that data however, because it may not indicate as dramatic a shift in terms of beliefs as one might expect. Only about a third of the nones identify as atheists or agnostics. The vast majority of them believe in God. In fact in one Pew poll, defying traditional definitions, about 9% of the respondents who identified as atheistic or agnostic said they believe in God with “absolute certainty.”
If the trend is away from churches, but not away from beliefs, one has to look more closely at the data in order to understand what is going on. This movement away from religious institutions is taking place in the midst of a rapid decline in trust in institutions in general. Confidence in government and big business has fallen at the same time and nearly at the same rate as confidence in religious institutions. Americans appear to be growing more individualistic and skeptical of authority in general.
Another trend that appears to be occurring is that the growth of the more fundamentalist and conservative right evangelical churches that began to accelerate during the 1970’s was almost completely at the expense of mainline protestant congregations. And, now that the fundamentalist congregations are themselves experiencing the decline it is clear that the attempt to draw members from other Christian churches was successful only in the short term. Those members kept going and now are leaving the church entirely. Many people who check “none of the above” express a very dim view of religious conservatives asserting that churches are too focused on rules and money and too involved with politics. Some put all Christian churches in the same category as Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and conclude, “If this is religion, I want no part in it.”
Another dynamic worthy of note is that rebellion from religion is a socially acceptable form of expressing the distancing from parents that is a normal part of adolescence. The extending of adolescence in America has meant that things that used to affect a decade of the age span now affect nearly double the population. 74% of those who claim “none of the above” as their religious affiliation were raised in a religious tradition and turned away in their adolescent years. And here is another interesting trend: 40% of those raised unaffiliated have fallen away from their parent’s lack of religious tradition and now have become participants in churches. Mainline protestant churches are experiencing a mini-revival of young adults who grew up without religious affiliation and now are choosing to become involved in religion.
The result is a very confused religious landscape.
Churches that try to respond to every whim and fancy of the poll results end up being confused and often fail to attract new members because they don’t seem to have any identity at all. One of the elements that seems to be shared by many congregations in decline is a tendency to follow every trend that comes their way, making frequent major changes in styles of music, orders of worship and other major elements of congregational life.
Staying the same without any change at all, however, is also a recipe for decline.
One thing that seems to be succeeding for congregations is offering a variety of different options for members. If it is true that our culture in general is becoming more individualistic, different choices appeal to different people. When I became pastor of this congregation, it offered one mid-week service during Holy Week. The Maundy Thursday communion service was generally well-attended, though the crowd wasn’t as big as Palm Sunday or Easter. This week we are offering seven distinct mid-week services. It is too early to have any meaningful statistics, but if subsequent services have attendances that match last night’s service, the total attendance during Holy Week will exceed both Palm Sunday and Easter. That is something that may never have occurred in this congregation. More choices seem to result in more total attendance.
Our Department of Worship started to form the plan for this year’s Holy Week almost a year ago. Following Easter last year, they began to talk about increasing options and offering more for the congregation. Growth in the era of declining membership is difficult, even in a congregation that is bucking those trends. While our church continues to experience modest growth, it is hard to find budget for additional services and events. But the Department felt that the expansion was warranted from the perspective of faith and took the risk – a risk that appears to be well worth it.
Maybe the church enters new territory each time we observe Holy Week. When we take the scriptures seriously, it seems impossible that we can come face to face with Holy Week and not be changed. The week begins with an entry into Jerusalem on palm-strewn streets and continues through a cleansing of the temple to an unavoidable confrontation with death. Were the story to end there, there would be no point in continuing, but when death is squarely confronted, it loses its power and we learn that it is not the end.
We all need to be reminded of this truth – especially those who believe in God, but are skeptical about the institutions of faith. The decline of institutions is not the end. If we are to be serious about our faith in the Resurrection, we need to get over our fear of dying. That applies to the institution as well as to individuals.
The journey continues . . .
One needs to be careful with that data however, because it may not indicate as dramatic a shift in terms of beliefs as one might expect. Only about a third of the nones identify as atheists or agnostics. The vast majority of them believe in God. In fact in one Pew poll, defying traditional definitions, about 9% of the respondents who identified as atheistic or agnostic said they believe in God with “absolute certainty.”
If the trend is away from churches, but not away from beliefs, one has to look more closely at the data in order to understand what is going on. This movement away from religious institutions is taking place in the midst of a rapid decline in trust in institutions in general. Confidence in government and big business has fallen at the same time and nearly at the same rate as confidence in religious institutions. Americans appear to be growing more individualistic and skeptical of authority in general.
Another trend that appears to be occurring is that the growth of the more fundamentalist and conservative right evangelical churches that began to accelerate during the 1970’s was almost completely at the expense of mainline protestant congregations. And, now that the fundamentalist congregations are themselves experiencing the decline it is clear that the attempt to draw members from other Christian churches was successful only in the short term. Those members kept going and now are leaving the church entirely. Many people who check “none of the above” express a very dim view of religious conservatives asserting that churches are too focused on rules and money and too involved with politics. Some put all Christian churches in the same category as Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson and conclude, “If this is religion, I want no part in it.”
Another dynamic worthy of note is that rebellion from religion is a socially acceptable form of expressing the distancing from parents that is a normal part of adolescence. The extending of adolescence in America has meant that things that used to affect a decade of the age span now affect nearly double the population. 74% of those who claim “none of the above” as their religious affiliation were raised in a religious tradition and turned away in their adolescent years. And here is another interesting trend: 40% of those raised unaffiliated have fallen away from their parent’s lack of religious tradition and now have become participants in churches. Mainline protestant churches are experiencing a mini-revival of young adults who grew up without religious affiliation and now are choosing to become involved in religion.
The result is a very confused religious landscape.
Churches that try to respond to every whim and fancy of the poll results end up being confused and often fail to attract new members because they don’t seem to have any identity at all. One of the elements that seems to be shared by many congregations in decline is a tendency to follow every trend that comes their way, making frequent major changes in styles of music, orders of worship and other major elements of congregational life.
Staying the same without any change at all, however, is also a recipe for decline.
One thing that seems to be succeeding for congregations is offering a variety of different options for members. If it is true that our culture in general is becoming more individualistic, different choices appeal to different people. When I became pastor of this congregation, it offered one mid-week service during Holy Week. The Maundy Thursday communion service was generally well-attended, though the crowd wasn’t as big as Palm Sunday or Easter. This week we are offering seven distinct mid-week services. It is too early to have any meaningful statistics, but if subsequent services have attendances that match last night’s service, the total attendance during Holy Week will exceed both Palm Sunday and Easter. That is something that may never have occurred in this congregation. More choices seem to result in more total attendance.
Our Department of Worship started to form the plan for this year’s Holy Week almost a year ago. Following Easter last year, they began to talk about increasing options and offering more for the congregation. Growth in the era of declining membership is difficult, even in a congregation that is bucking those trends. While our church continues to experience modest growth, it is hard to find budget for additional services and events. But the Department felt that the expansion was warranted from the perspective of faith and took the risk – a risk that appears to be well worth it.
Maybe the church enters new territory each time we observe Holy Week. When we take the scriptures seriously, it seems impossible that we can come face to face with Holy Week and not be changed. The week begins with an entry into Jerusalem on palm-strewn streets and continues through a cleansing of the temple to an unavoidable confrontation with death. Were the story to end there, there would be no point in continuing, but when death is squarely confronted, it loses its power and we learn that it is not the end.
We all need to be reminded of this truth – especially those who believe in God, but are skeptical about the institutions of faith. The decline of institutions is not the end. If we are to be serious about our faith in the Resurrection, we need to get over our fear of dying. That applies to the institution as well as to individuals.
The journey continues . . .