End of the Year Observations
28/12/12 05:24
My thermometer is hovering around -1 F, which is the first time it has been below zero since last winter. It is officially cold out. And for some folks today is the last day of work for 2012. We, of course, have quite a bit left to accomplish before we close out the year. We have a firewood delivery on Saturday, worship on Sunday and some end-of-the-year bookkeeping to complete on Monday before we celebrate the coming of the new year.
But it is a good day for thinking about the year that is passing and anticipate the year that is to come. I’m not too big on all of the predictions that are popular in the press. I’m content to allow the future to unfold at its own pace without a need to have some kind of an inside view about what is coming. I’ve seen too many predictions turn out to be inaccurate. Just recently we noticed that the world did not end on the day predicted by some pundits. In my understanding, Biblical prophecy is more about drawing people closer to God than it is about predicting future events.
Still, it is fun to think about what changes will come with the future. The world is such a fast paced place that it is likely that the coming year will bring surprises. Things that we did not anticipate will come to pass. So, just for the fun of it this morning, here are some trends that seem to be emerging without any thought to order or relevance. They’re just some end of the year observations.
It hasn’t been too many years since our church invested in a relatively expensive telephone upgrade. Our old system could only handle two incoming lines and we had no provisions for fax. We were using an old style answering machine to attend to the phone when we were out of the office. The new phone system had lots of features that we haven’t yet fully utilized, but one of the things that was important to us at the time was that we have a good state-of-the-art voicemail system that allowed for customized messages and inboxes for each of the church’s employees, a changing message for different times of the day and different seasons of the year and the ability to check voicemail messages from any telephone. We got all of those features, but we have been noticing that the number of voicemail messages is declining.
We have already learned that leaving voicemail messages doesn’t work for some of our younger members. When asked if they got our voicemail, they will respond that they never listen to their voicemail. If we want to communicate with them, they ask us to send them a text message. We’re learning to send text from our cell phones and remembering to check for our text messages. JWT, a New-York based world-wide marketing firm predicts that voicemail will fade away in the coming year because nobody can be bothered with listening. I suspect that it will take longer than a year, but I do sense that leaving phone messages is not the trend of the future. The problem with a church is that we have members at lots of different places in the communications spectrum and we have to reach out to all of them. We have to be competent in paper mail and letters, in electronic mail, in voice messaging and text messaging and lots of other technologies to reach our people. We even used a “robo” call earlier this year to remind people of our new photo directory. Whatever else happens, I am sure that there will continue to be changes in the technologies of communication. There will continue to be people who don’t seem to get the message no matter what technique we employ. There will continue to be people who are a bit self-absorbed and even rude in their communications. Maybe there really isn’t much that is new.
One thing that I hope will happen this year is that we find alternatives to all of the usernames and passwords that are required to keep up with a digital lifestyle. All of the different PINs don’t really give that much security because we are unable to remember different passwords for all of the different accounts. Some users refer to keeping lists, which is a less-than-secure method. Others are continually asking for password prompts, and other way to demonstrate that the system isn’t completely secure. I recently read a report that was analyzing a new super-secure computer system for use in hospitals. The system issues random passwords on a regular basis and users have to keep up with regular password changes. The problem with the system is that users couldn’t remember passwords and so they tended to keep sticky notes on their monitors with the passwords written on them. In one hospital, more than a third of the monitors had paper notes with passwords attached to them. It turned out to be a less-than-secure system. I know that there are biometric identification technologies on the way. I have read predictions of bank machines and smart phones that recognize the user. They can’t come soon enough for me. I spend way too much time remembering authentication codes.
Here is a trend that I’d like to see, though I wouldn’t take it as a prediction. I’m probably wrong. I’d like to see it become more popular for people to get exercise from their everyday living. It seems like every strip mall has to have an exercise club. Places to work out are springing up all over town. With each new one I wonder how many the market could absorb. I’ve never been a health club kind of person in the first place. I see no reason to walk on a treadmill when you can go for a walk in the woods. I’m not a fan of riding a bicycle in place. I have finally become one of the consumers of exercise machines. I have a rowing machine in my library for days when the ice is too thick for rowing on the lake. And I have found that I use the machine a lot. But at least I wish that people would substitute walking for driving to get to and from their neighborhood health club.
And now my essay has exceeded its usual length and I haven’t begun to make predictions. Don’t get me started on fake foods. I hear that they even have vegetarian bacon these days. I haven’t got a clue as to what the hot toy will be next Christmas. I’d be a poor person to get to predict the next hot marketing trend.
For now I’ll stick with the prediction that 2013 will bring at least a few days that are warmer than today.
But it is a good day for thinking about the year that is passing and anticipate the year that is to come. I’m not too big on all of the predictions that are popular in the press. I’m content to allow the future to unfold at its own pace without a need to have some kind of an inside view about what is coming. I’ve seen too many predictions turn out to be inaccurate. Just recently we noticed that the world did not end on the day predicted by some pundits. In my understanding, Biblical prophecy is more about drawing people closer to God than it is about predicting future events.
Still, it is fun to think about what changes will come with the future. The world is such a fast paced place that it is likely that the coming year will bring surprises. Things that we did not anticipate will come to pass. So, just for the fun of it this morning, here are some trends that seem to be emerging without any thought to order or relevance. They’re just some end of the year observations.
It hasn’t been too many years since our church invested in a relatively expensive telephone upgrade. Our old system could only handle two incoming lines and we had no provisions for fax. We were using an old style answering machine to attend to the phone when we were out of the office. The new phone system had lots of features that we haven’t yet fully utilized, but one of the things that was important to us at the time was that we have a good state-of-the-art voicemail system that allowed for customized messages and inboxes for each of the church’s employees, a changing message for different times of the day and different seasons of the year and the ability to check voicemail messages from any telephone. We got all of those features, but we have been noticing that the number of voicemail messages is declining.
We have already learned that leaving voicemail messages doesn’t work for some of our younger members. When asked if they got our voicemail, they will respond that they never listen to their voicemail. If we want to communicate with them, they ask us to send them a text message. We’re learning to send text from our cell phones and remembering to check for our text messages. JWT, a New-York based world-wide marketing firm predicts that voicemail will fade away in the coming year because nobody can be bothered with listening. I suspect that it will take longer than a year, but I do sense that leaving phone messages is not the trend of the future. The problem with a church is that we have members at lots of different places in the communications spectrum and we have to reach out to all of them. We have to be competent in paper mail and letters, in electronic mail, in voice messaging and text messaging and lots of other technologies to reach our people. We even used a “robo” call earlier this year to remind people of our new photo directory. Whatever else happens, I am sure that there will continue to be changes in the technologies of communication. There will continue to be people who don’t seem to get the message no matter what technique we employ. There will continue to be people who are a bit self-absorbed and even rude in their communications. Maybe there really isn’t much that is new.
One thing that I hope will happen this year is that we find alternatives to all of the usernames and passwords that are required to keep up with a digital lifestyle. All of the different PINs don’t really give that much security because we are unable to remember different passwords for all of the different accounts. Some users refer to keeping lists, which is a less-than-secure method. Others are continually asking for password prompts, and other way to demonstrate that the system isn’t completely secure. I recently read a report that was analyzing a new super-secure computer system for use in hospitals. The system issues random passwords on a regular basis and users have to keep up with regular password changes. The problem with the system is that users couldn’t remember passwords and so they tended to keep sticky notes on their monitors with the passwords written on them. In one hospital, more than a third of the monitors had paper notes with passwords attached to them. It turned out to be a less-than-secure system. I know that there are biometric identification technologies on the way. I have read predictions of bank machines and smart phones that recognize the user. They can’t come soon enough for me. I spend way too much time remembering authentication codes.
Here is a trend that I’d like to see, though I wouldn’t take it as a prediction. I’m probably wrong. I’d like to see it become more popular for people to get exercise from their everyday living. It seems like every strip mall has to have an exercise club. Places to work out are springing up all over town. With each new one I wonder how many the market could absorb. I’ve never been a health club kind of person in the first place. I see no reason to walk on a treadmill when you can go for a walk in the woods. I’m not a fan of riding a bicycle in place. I have finally become one of the consumers of exercise machines. I have a rowing machine in my library for days when the ice is too thick for rowing on the lake. And I have found that I use the machine a lot. But at least I wish that people would substitute walking for driving to get to and from their neighborhood health club.
And now my essay has exceeded its usual length and I haven’t begun to make predictions. Don’t get me started on fake foods. I hear that they even have vegetarian bacon these days. I haven’t got a clue as to what the hot toy will be next Christmas. I’d be a poor person to get to predict the next hot marketing trend.
For now I’ll stick with the prediction that 2013 will bring at least a few days that are warmer than today.